People School

Dear readers, With the first half of the year behind us, it's time to reflect on the current state of the markets and anticipate what lies ahead. Benchmark indices across major markets have witnessed substantial gains since the beginning of the year. In India, the Nifty has been reaching new heights, capturing investors' attention. A closer look at the MSCI country indices provides valuable perspective. As of June 27th, 2023, the MSCI India index in dollar terms has risen by 2.7 percent year-to-date. Comparatively, Korea has surged by 16.2 percent, and Mexico by 26.6 percent. However, the performance of MSCI China leaves much to be desired. The question arises: Are the markets rallying due to high expectations for the remainder of the year?  Inflation is on a downward trajectory, and rate hikes have either occurred or are nearing their peaks. Systematix Institutional Equities notes that the markets are factoring in a "hyper goldilocks scenario," assuming that ...

Dear Readers, Welcome to our weekly newsletter, where we provide you with the latest insights and updates on economic developments. Let's dive into the highlights of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) monetary policy committee's June meeting and its implications for the economy. The minutes of the meeting revealed that the committee members acknowledged the positive progress in both growth and inflation. However, they emphasized that the RBI should not become complacent despite the cumulative 250 basis points policy rate hikes and should remain vigilant in ensuring price stability. While the past rate hikes are gradually impacting the economy, the central bank still needs to exercise caution and avoid any drastic shifts in policy. Economists have labeled the June policy as a "Goldilocks" one, indicating a favorable balance between inflation and growth. The outlook for growth is more optimistic than before, and inflation appears less daunting. However, the MPC...

  Dear Readers, In this week's newsletter, we delve into the escalating battle in India's domestic skies as IndiGo , the leading airline, secures a ground-breaking aircraft deal. IndiGo 's recent agreement with French aerospace giant Airbus for the purchase of 500 aircraft has set a new record in the aviation industry. Not only is this the largest-ever single aircraft order placed by any airline with Airbus , but it also signifies a defining moment in aviation history. Industry veterans and analysts emphasize that IndiGo 's deal is commercially significant, as it secures delivery slots for the next decade. Such a massive order empowers customers to negotiate commercially viable terms, including engine selection, aircraft type mix, and pricing. With this milestone order, IndiGo has soared above Tata-owned Air India , which had surprised the industry with its turnaround plans and a 470-aircraft order placed with Boeing and Airbus earlier this year. Post-pandem...

Dear Readers, Welcome to our weekly newsletter, where we bring you the latest insights and updates on global central bank actions, economic indicators, and market trends. This week, central bankers made interesting moves, ranging from skipping to hopping, leaving investors and markets curious about the future. Central banks have been engaged in lively debates about their strategies. Shaktikanta Das of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) recently skipped for the second time, while Jerome Powell of the Federal Reserve may follow suit next week, although his actions have been unpredictable. In contrast, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem preferred to hop this week, implementing a small 25 basis point increase. Similarly, the Reserve Bank of Australia's Chief Philip Lowe surprised the markets by executing two small jumps of 25 basis points each, contrary to the expected skip. Meanwhile, the South African central bank's 50 basis point raise last month could be seen as a significan...

Dear Readers, Welcome to our weekly newsletter! We bring you the latest updates on India's manufacturing sector and its impact on the country's economic growth. In the latest report, the S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for India's manufacturing revealed that the sector hit a 31-month high in May. Let's dive into the key highlights and insights from the report. 1. Robust Manufacturing Activity: The PMI for May stood at 58.7, surpassing expectations and marking a significant increase from April's reading of 57.2. This indicates a strong expansion in manufacturing, with factory orders experiencing the fastest growth since January 2021. The data showcases the resilience and optimism seen in India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the March quarter and fiscal year 2023. 2. Construction Sector Leads the Way: The Q4 GDP growth of 6.1% exceeded estimates and revealed the manufacturing sector's prominent role. Notably, constructi...